Taking lead from John McCain
I am suspending the topic of my blog this week to address the swine flu.
("While having no impact whatsoever, that's a real McCain," one of you has already told me. Well, maybe I'm not taking the senator's complete lead. There are precautions we need to be discussing here that can help us.)
Vice President Joe Biden commented this week that he's advising his family not to use airplanes or subways, as these confined spaces allow statistically higher chances to transfer bacteria and viruses, such as the swine flu. The airline industry is furious by yet another one of Biden's slip-up comments, however I think the V.P. is on to something. (http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=7470281& page=1 ).
How it spreads
The swine flu, or the influenza A virus subtype H1N1. It's a virus transferrable through person-to-person contact and began spreading out of Mexico this spring. Since then, it has reached 11 states in the United States and 12 countries, as of today. Those who had travelled to and from Mexico contracted it and brought it home, then infecting those around them. Thanks alot, honeymooners.
We're all familiar with how a flu virus passes on- we get it, have symptoms with fever for about a week, and we're pretty contagious. We avoid the flu by taking a flu vaccine, probably once a year, as new strains appear often and mutate into different strains we're not vaccinated for. So the FDA tests the vaccines and we get them, hoping we won't get in contact with the flu. Even if we don't have the flu vaccine, we're safe from the flu if a certain percentage of those around us are vaccinated. This theory works similarly with any vaccination, but the necessary percentages of those vaccinated around you differ sometimes. So we're safe if some majority of us is vaccinated. A portion of NPR's This American Life episode "Ruining It for the Rest of Us" explains it beautifully. Listen for free (http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?sched= 1275 ).
None of us can currently be vaccinated for this flu, however. A vaccination for this probably will not be properly tested and approved for years, as agencies like the FDA did not look out for this. Yet I've already seen antidote-like swine flu vaccine pills online (www.swine-flu-vaccine.org) . What a scam. This type of protection is absolutely not available at this time.
According to the Bloomberg Press:
Flu vaccines generally contain a dead or weakened form of a circulating virus. The vaccine prepares the body’s immune system to fend off a true infection. For the vaccine to work, it must match the circulating, “wild-type” virus relatively closely. There is no vaccine currently that exactly matches the swine flu. The seasonal flu vaccine isn’t effective against swine flu, says Besser, the acting head of the [U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.]
Vaccine makers have contacted the World Health Organization about obtaining samples of the virus needed to make a vaccine. Making flu vaccine can take three to six months. No decision has been made to order a vaccine against swine flu, Besser said. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLdy2aZer5fM&refer=home).
Why it's scary
Sure, the only swine flu-related deaths we've seen so far have been those in Mexico who were already weak, old, or sick. Those people are expected to not handle any flu so well. And the first swine flu death of the United States was a 23 month old baby in Texas that had just travelled from Mexico to the U.S. Sure, a baby could die of the flu. Thousands of people die with the flu every year (See graphs at http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/) ( http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/world/11544526.asp?scr=1).
Yet the swine flu's ancestor is the great influenza of 1918: the Spanish flu. Wiki this- it was the last pandemic that spread to all parts of the world, which did not have adequate medicines for. It spread across as simple flu-like symptoms, but then mutated into a more deadly strain. When not contained, the swine flu can also easily mutate and become a strain more dangerous to the global population.
PBS reports that the Spanish flu affected over 50% of the world's population at the time, and was most rapidly spread and fatal at a time of war. It also reports:
The influenza commonly called "Spanish flu" killed more people than the guns of World War I. Estimates put the worldwide death toll at 21,642,274. Some one billion people were affected by the disease -- half of the total human population. It came at a time when 19 nations were at war and the disruption, stress, and privation of war certainly aided the flu's transmission. It killed people on every continent except Antarctica, with the most lives lost in Asia and the highest percentage of population killed in India. About 57,000 American soldiers died from influenza while the U.S. was at war; about 53,500 died in battle.
After months of terrorizing people around the world, the "Spanish lady" (called "The Naples Soldier" in Spain, and a variety of other names around the world) seemed to withdraw. It had been the most dire epidemic since the Middle Ages, the third worst in recorded history...And still little is known about the origin or nature of the killer virus. Many believe the modern "swine flu" virus is a descendant of the deadly 1918 flu. Some theorize that its stronger ancestor ganged up with a bacteria to wreak havoc on the human population. (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aso/databank/entries/dm18fl.html ).
A couple years ago I read The Great Influenza by John M. Barry about the Spanish flu. The book is about 1,000 pages and packed with information about World War I and how a virus like this spreads. Read it and fear it. Buy it below.
What we've been advised
President Obama, in his press conference yesterday, advised the public to be concerned, but not to panic. Wash your hands and cover your mouth, he advised in his most dignified motherly tone.Yet the World Health Organization has raised our alert level to 5, just one below pandemic level. At this alert level, all countries will prepare and mobilize to aid citizens contracting this virus, as well as increase efforts to create a vaccine.
And it's crossing continents. Hurriyet Daily News says:
In France, President Nicolas Sarkozy met with Cabinet ministers to discuss swine flu and Minister of Health Roselyne Bachelot said France will ask the European Union to suspend flights to Mexico. She said flights from Mexico could continue.
President Obama similarly supported the decision not to block travelling between the United States and Mexico, using a metaphor that points out that we can't contain the virus anymore- it's out and about, and there's not much we can do to stop it from spreading across the nation.
However, travelling isn't really encouraged after all
The U.S., the EU, and other countries discouraged nonessential travel to Mexico, Cuba has banned flights to and from Mexico and Argentina has suspended flights arriving from Mexico. Egypt began slaughtering the roughly 300,000 pigs in the country as a precautionary measure against the spread of flu even though no cases have been reported here yet.
What's going on
Hey, people are already being quarantined, especially students in Texas. For weeks at a time. Just imagine, you could be quarantined if there's an outbreak near you. From work, school, even from leaving your driveway. Again, listen to the This American Life podcast I posted above for the story of an unfortunate New Jersey quarantine.
The Dallas Morning News reports:
130,000 Texas students missing class because of swine flu; UIL suspends events
The Fort Worth school district, one of the largest in the state, announced Wednesday that it is closing all schools to prevent a possible spread of the swine flu. Nearly 80,000 students will be out of school through at least May 8, Fort Worth ISD spokesman Clint Bond said. The closures came at the recommendation of the Tarrant County Health Department, he said.
And schools across areas like Brooklyn and Queens are closing schools left and right, as well- this is not just an issue in Mexico's bordering area. Packed-in spaces are indeed festering the virus, too similar to 1918 wartime's condensed communities festering the virus.
Who to look to
With biases everywhere telling us not to panic here and to fear for human extinction there, it's hard to tell who we should look to for guidance about this issue. My advice: follow the WHO, or the World Health Organization, for reports on what's going on. Of course it will tell us not to panic... NO INSTITUTION like this is actually going to tell us to panic (imagine the Obama administration writing from the White House: "Dear America: ready, set, freak out!") However the WHO will give us accurate accounts of the research and actions taken to prevent the illness from affecting you. Do what the WHO tells you would be the best action to keep from catching the swine flu.
The WHO says:
Asked for advice for ordinary citizens, General Margaret Chan, the WHO chief, said: "Continue with your business but try to pay special attention to personal hygiene."
Dr. Keiji Fukuda, WHO's top flu expert, said vigilance was all important because it was not known how severe the outbreaks would become.
"It really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic," said WHO Director General Margaret Chan. "We do not have all the answers right now but we will get them." (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090429/ap_on_go_pr_wh/med_swine_flu).
I say
I'm alarmed. The WHO recognizes that this swine flu is going to spread exponentially faster as time goes on. As the virus is caught by more individuals across the globe, the strain will mutate, eventually becoming more harmful to those in contact with it. So though people with the flu now are just dealing with flu-like symptoms, in a short while people who catch this virus will have much worse conditions. And in this short amount of time, we will probably not have the proper vaccinations or medicines to prevent or treat these conditions.
Wash your hands and cover your mouth so you don't get the virus or spread it unknowingly to others. By doing this, you can prevent global chaos.
And for a quick final comment
Hurriyet Daily News also reports:
"We will use the term Mexican flu in order not to have to pronounce the word swine," Deputy Health Minister in Israel said on Monday.
"European Union Commission is calling it ’novel flu virus’ just to avoid the misunderstandings with the animal diseases because it costs a lot to the industry," said spokeswoman Nina Papadoulaki.
What.the.heck. It's the swine flu. Bacon and pork sales will be down for a long, long time no matter what you name this virus. (http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/world/11544526.asp?scr=1).
"Wash your hands and cover your mouth" - schools in the local detroit area are going father than that. A school district cancelled classes for today and tomorrow because of the catastrophe this flu could bring about!
ReplyDeleteAwesome blog! Nice balance between being honest and levelheaded. :-)